Academy awards 2011 who is going to win

In fact, Il Divo, a comedy about Giulio Andreotti, Italy's prime minister from to , has only really had festival releases outside of Europe. The favourite here is Star Trek and as far as creative make up work goes, the workload on that film was significantly higher. As much as Young Victoria deserves Oscar success, it isn't in this category, and while ageing effects on an Italian legend are impressive, from the tip of Spock's ears to, well, the tip of Eric Bana's ears, Star Trek's make up magicians deserve this one.

It's a genuine pleasure to say this? The name Hans Zimmer has pushed betting on Sherlock Holmes to third favourite, but its two time Oscar winner James Horner's work on Avatar that poses the biggest threat. Something very special made watching a septuagenarian and a boy scout float around under some rainbow balloons a magical experience, and it was in large part, the simple score of Michael Giacchino. To top it off, he also composed the score for Star Trek this year, so quite simply how can anyone else get this.

Oh to go back in time and place a bet, even a year ago, that a song sung by Jeff Bridges would win an Oscar. There's no point betting on it now, it's a massive favourite, and the only surprise really is that The Weary Kind is the only song nominated from Crazy Heart. That said, two nominations from one film damages both songs' chances and that is the fate for the two Princess and the Frog ditties that have made the short list.

As the year's only big budget musical, Nine might have hoped to at least dominate the music categories, but it was a disappointing film and the songs while enjoyable were for the most part forgettable. In short, if you can remember how Take It All goes without a reminder then it should win. Enough said. As in all the categories, these nominees are all wonderful little films, and a great alternative to the Oscars might be to show them all in a row.

Aardman's A Matter of Loaf and Death is a strong chance here as well, currently favourite and sure to carry a lot of sentimental appeal. At the same time, don't rule out Logorama a violent and foul-mouthed short in which the world and characters are all corporate logos. For inventiveness alone this will win respect, and in a category where novelty value can mean a lot this stands a strong chance.

Plus, how can Hollywood go past a gun-toting Ronald McDonald? Australia's best chance at the Oscars this year lies with Miracle Fish, a short film about bullying that wowed Sundance. The bookmakers have no clear favourite in this category, though in the last few days Miracle Fish's odds have lengthened a fraction and Irish film The Door and The New Tenants which comes from writers with some serious industry background and which probably has the edge here.

And now we come to the category that allows Transformers 2 to state that it was an Oscar nominee! Have no fear though, it and Star Trek are the outsiders here as the nights big three or big two and perennial nuisance will fight this out. The fact that the Transformers and Trekkies are here though is an indication of what the Academy is looking for, the creativity in sound that allows noises to be made for things that don't even exist.

As such, Avatar? That all said JJ Abrams amazing effort deserves some glory on the night and though it will be swamped by the other space epic, arguably was less in your face or should that be ear? Sometimes not noticing is better.

Same big two films fighting it out for the sound editing prize as far as the bookmakers are concerned, with Up an outside chance. Once again, it's hard to look past the technical wizardry of the Avatar team though. The only surprise here is that they bothered to nominate two other films. Star Trek and District 9 had great effects, particularly the latter considering its budget, but even the most devout Avatar haters out there have to acknowledge that not only is this the category with the worst odds Avatar is 80 to 1 odds on with one bookie but it deserves to be the unbackable favourite here.

In The Loop is apparently considered to have been rewarded enough by being the only genuine comedy to get a nod, and is the outsider. Strangely District 9 has been largely ignored here, despite this often being considered the Little Train that Could category.

The key word here is 'adapted' and in terms of the sheer creativity from page to? The original material here was a single, short chapter in a biography. The end result a beautiful mix of humour and pathos. Is Tarantino going to get a second 'conciliation' Oscar? Many believe when he won this award for Pulp Fiction it was mostly done to compensate him for losing in the big awards to Forest Gump. The bookies certainly have Quentin as favourite, but only by the slimmest of margins as The Hurt Locker is also considered a very strong candidate at around 2 to 1.

And it could be that it is the Hurt Locker that gets this award as its very own compensation if the voters are worried Avatar will sweep the big awards.

Up is the only other film given a slight chance, but that is on the thin side of slim. It seems strange that The Hurt Locker is such a strong candidate here, as its script does not seem to be its greatest strength, defying so many rules of the craft that it required truly extraordinary direction to pull it off.

On the other hand, there has been a significant amount of criticism of Tarantino's script as well. Of all the page masterpieces here though, it is the Pixar gem that deserves recognition for taking the challenge of two very odd characters and crafting a terrific tale. Jeff Bridges is the obvious favourite to win this award for Crazy Heart - he's odds on with most bookies - but that is to ignore the real bookies revelation.

The remaining four candidates are almost all equal odds. This is interesting, as it strongly indicates that not only is Bridges favourite, but there's not even an obvious candidate. Firth and Clooney are the 'second' favourites. If you're looking for a surprise on the night this could well be it. Sandra Bullock was initially considered a lock after sweeping the early awards, but the Academy has had time to stew, and they hate to be too predictable?

The odds have tightened a lot in this race, to the point where the only certain statement is that Helen Mirren will not win it. Bullock is still the favourite, at essentially odds on, but Meryl Streep is a close second at around 2 to 1, and you never write off Meryl at the Oscars.

Carey Mulligan is not out of the reckoning at 10 to 1 or thereabouts. And for a potential payday, Gabourey Sidibe may be a good bet at 20 to 1, having dropped significantly in the last few days. The odds may be against Gabourey Sidibe and so may the fact that Hollywood still tend to lean white with their major awards, but that's not going to worry the talent who played Precious.

Some may feel even a nomination is a reward for someone who prior to this film was a desk jockey studying psychology, but surely the sheer native talent involved here deserves the gong in an otherwise weak field. Let's be clear, there's only three real candidates in this race. Jason Reitman and Lee Daniels both made great films, but as far as the bookies are concerned, and they're on the money here, that's all folks.

Does it hurt Jeff Bridges that he won the best actor prize last year? And if I get any wrong — well, believe it or not, it will be a relief.

I was beginning to feel the pressure of my predictions — and also the slight dullness of sitting through one awards show after another without ever being surprised. The Race So Far: Hawkes and Renner have yet to win any major guild or critics' prizes, so they're pretty much non-starters. Bale won this category at SAG and the Golden Globes, giving him a definite edge — but there's a contingent who found his acting over-the-top, and he has a bit of a cranky reputation.

Rush has won an Oscar before, though; Ruffalo's work was solid but hardly astounding. Who Will Win: Christian Bale. Who Should Win: Geoffrey Rush. The Race So Far: Adams has yet to win anything although she played wonderfully against type as the brassy barmaid. Steinfeld is excellent, but while a young un' getting an Oscar for her debut isn't unprecedented, it is rare although sympathetic voters may vote for her anyway, feeling she was under-nominated for what's clearly a lead.

Jackie Weaver's only prize came from the anti-commercial L. No, clearly Leo is far out in front on this one, with wins at the Golden Globes, the New York critics and SAG which carries extra weight, as performers make up the largest contingent of Oscar voters.

The only question is if the actress hurt herself by getting a little pushy, taking out ads in the trades to ask for votes. Who Will Win: Melissa Leo. Who Should Win : Amy Adams. Plus, Firth has been doing this for decades, he should have won last year for "A Single Man" and he gives the most charming acceptance speeches around.

This race? Poster Girl. Sara Nesson and Mitchell W. Sun Come Up. Jennifer Redfearn and Tim Metzger. The Warriors of Qiugang. Ruby Yang and Thomas Lennon. Winner The Social Network. Angus Wall and Kirk Baxter. Andrew Weisblum. Pamela Martin. Winner In a Better World.

Outside the Law Hors-la-loi. Irving G. Thalberg Memorial Award. Francis Ford Coppola. Winner The Wolfman. Rick Baker and Dave Elsey. Barney's Version. The Way Back. Edouard F. Henriques, Gregory Funk and Yolanda Toussieng. Alexandre Desplat. Country Strong. Rahman; Lyric by Dido and Rollo Armstrong. Emma Thomas and Christopher Nolan, Producers. Darla K. Anderson, Producer. Winner The Lost Thing. Shaun Tan and Andrew Ruhemann.

The Gruffalo. Jakob Schuh and Max Lang. Let's Pollute. Geefwee Boedoe. Madagascar, carnet de voyage Madagascar, a Journey Diary. Bastien Dubois. Winner God of Love. The Confession.

The Crush. Michael Creagh. Na Wewe. Ivan Goldschmidt. Wish Ian Barnes and Samantha Waite. Tom Myers and Michael Silvers.

Tron: Legacy. Gwendolyn Yates Whittle and Addison Teague. Skip Lievsay and Craig Berkey. Mark P. Lora Hirschberg, Gary A. Rizzo and Ed Novick. Jeffrey J. Haboush, Greg P. Russell, Scott Millan and William Sarokin. Alice in Wonderland. Iron Man 2. Screenplay by Aaron Sorkin. Screenplay by David Seidler. Another Year. Written by Mike Leigh.